Thursday, November 30, 2006
So, until and unless the voters strictly define the criteria, Albert, yours are just sour grapes. While we’re at it, let’s throw in greed, too.
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The FA market is rapidly dwindling down to marginal players, questionable commodities, players with alarming health profiles and other flotsam and jetsam. Under the circumstances, it is only prudent that Phillies GM Pat Gillick is casting a wary eye at those players still circling the remaining chairs. If he needs further confirmation of the risks of spending a lot of money on guys with a history of arm miseries, he can look no further than the Phillies closer, Flash Gordon, who broke down last year and upon his return had a decidedly mediocre finish to the season.
Gillick’s problem is that he needs a lot of bullpen help and none seems available. Rather than sign some guy who is going to break down, the Phillies would be wise to use Matt Smith in the main set-up role and as their emergency closer, bring back Fabio Castro and actually use him in meaningful situations and tell Ryan Madson he is their sixth or seventh inning guy period and stop even thinking about any other role.
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The Red Sox seem to have hit a stumbling block in their negotiations with Daisuke Matsuzaka and it’s name is “money”. What a surprise. MLB has informed Boston they “cannot reduce their $51.1 million bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka in order to sign him, even if his Japanese team agrees to take less…”
"There are no side deals in the situation," said Jimmie Lee Solomon, executive vice president of baseball operations in the commissioner's office. "Everybody's been assured that's not allowed, and everybody's been made aware of the rules."
The next sentence in virtually every media outlet reporting this development is that the Red Sox will figure out a way to work around these rules. What a great idea this posting system is!!
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While many people believe the most important developments thus far in the Hot Stove League have been the outlandish salaries heaped on Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, I would also point to the fact that Barry Bonds remains unemployed at this date. Generally acknowledged as the most feared hitter of his generation, Bonds will eventually sign with someone who wants the box-office boost his chase of Hank Aaron’s home record will surely produce, but in the meantime it is gratifying to see him in limbo.
Meanwhile, another home run hitter of note, Mark McGwire, is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time and his candidacy looks to be in real trouble. Many voters are making their secret ballots very public when it comes to McGwire and opinion is running against him, not, it should be pointed out, simply because of his unacknowledged use of steroids, but because his overall numbers are not HOF-worthy in the eyes of many voters. Some writers are frankly stating they are not in the business of policing the morality of baseball. Others say that the moral issue is important to them but MLB itself abrogated this responsibility during the height of the steroid era and it isn’t up to them to right this wrong. Instead, they point to Big Mac's overall offensive totals and say they do not measure up.
With the clearly worthy Cal Ripken and Tony Gywnn on the ballot for the first time as well as a few holdovers from the past who deserve serious consideration, McGwire’s chances of admission are poor in his first year and will no doubt deteriorate going forward.
Rest assured that when Bonds’ name comes up six or seven years from now he will be a first ballot entrant. Even with the tainted power numbers of recent years and a body that has “Steroids” written all over it, Bonds is a certifiable baseball immortal. While entry to the Hall has never been strictly defined in terms of numbers, it is clear Bonds has matched or exceeded the standards of those already admitted to this select circle. Nothing in the guidelines says anything about jerks, many of whom have been getting into the Hall for years. When Bonds’ becomes eligible, he will get the same “morality” pass guys like Ty Cobb got and be elected strictly on statistics. McGwire cannot rely on those.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
The Eagles, Flyers and Sixers are all down and out, a cheerless mixture of aging veterans, disappointing rookies, front office upheavals and questionable coaching. The Phillies, on the other hand, have a nucleus of bright young stars who seem poised for greatness. All that’s missing are a few pieces to propel them into the playoffs. Well, maybe there are several missing pieces, but the core of young stars is in place.
Despite unloading all or large portions of several onerous contracts, the Phillies haven’t spent big money this off-season in trying to improve themselves. Indeed, the Wes Helms and Adam Eaton signings are widely viewed as plans C and D after more coveted players signed elsewhere or made it known they had no interest in coming to Philadelphia. Given the outlandish contracts offered to Alfonso Soriano and, in particular, Carlos Lee, Pat Gillick cannot be faulted for exercising fiscal responsibility. Helms and Eaton may be gambles, but these were worth taking if the former’s previous season was not a fluke and latter can stay healthy. Of the two, Eaton’s hefty contract potentially poses some difficulty if he cannot put in the innings.
The latest rumor has the Phils in hot pursuit, along with the Oakland A’s, of aging catcher Mike Piazza, who still can hit lefties but whose always-suspect defensive skills have eroded to the point of embarrassment. The question of where to play Piazza in the field is hardly unimportant on a team that isn’t overwhelmingly strong defensively in the infield and desperately needs a reliable hand and mind behind the plate. It’s time for the Phillies to hand the catching job to Carlos Ruiz, who has earned his shot, and let him prove his worth as an every day player. Chris Coste makes a perfectly competent backup. I don’t believe Gillick would sign Piazza under those circumstances, which also include their desperation to rid themselves of Pat Burrell’s presence and contract. Frankly, Burrell is as good if not better an alternative to Piazza as a hitter and, swallowing hard, superior defensively.
As commenter RichSchuBlues has pointed out here and elsewhere, it is only late November and there is still time to find some relief pitching and, less likely, a big bat to protect Ryan Howard. Meanwhile, nearly everyone seems to think the Phillies starting rotation is set, but when I look at that quintet I see two aging veterans, one of whom is clearly out of shape and the other of whom is 43 years old, a sophomore with a history of health issues who threw more innings last season than he had in several previous years combined, a putative ace whose mental makeup on and off the field has prevented him from reaching the stardom everyone has predicted for years, and a newcomer who has had a series of health issues as well. Call me skeptical, but that group does not inspire a lot of confidence. They could surprise me, and the potential is there, but it could be fairly said that as a group they have a lot to prove…still.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
The Phillies have apparently completed their starting rotation with the signing of the free agent Eaton, whom they selected in the first round of the 1996 draft and later traded to San Diego. He replaces Wolf, who in seven years, all with the Phils, won 69 games. If Eaton remains healthy, he figures to be one of the sleepers of this off-season. Both he and Wolf are no strangers to injury, each having undergone Tommy John surgery. In six big league seasons Eaton has won 54 games.
Eaton spent last season with the Texas Rangers in a pitcher-friendly park. Now, he gets a chance to show his stuff in a hitters’ park while Wolf moves on to spacious Chavez Ravine.
The Eaton signing has to be seen as something of a gamble. Last year he lost considerable time due to a finger injury. Scouts love his stuff, which is code for he should be good if he can stay healthy and pitch like he is capable of pitching.
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David Dellucci has signed a three-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, who guaranteed him a starting role in left field. Dellucci was never happy in Philadelphia and made no effort to conceal his displeasure. He takes his astonishingly weak arm, questionable glove and flat-out inability to hit lefties or breaking balls back to the American League, which he prefers.
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Bill Conlin is one of the few local sports columnists who regularly replies to emails. Of course, he is so “faithful” because he is motivated by more than mere conversation; at least half of those replies drip with unconcealed contempt for his correspondents. Here he is today on bloggers and other cyberspace fans:
“Blog Nation and its e-mailing disciples remain locked in historic silk-purse-for-sow's-ear mode. Like their snail-mailing fathers and catcalling grandfathers, they insist you can get five-tool outfielder Vernon Wells from the Blue Jays for oft-injured, power-deprived outfielder Aaron Rowand and $4.2 million bonus flop Gavin Floyd.
They believe a similar package certainly should be able to land Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, a former MVP. Oh, yeah, since the Migster is adamant about remaining at shortstop, selfless, all-for-the-team-except-taking-a-pitch Jimmy Rollins would volunteer to jump on over to third base. Sure. The deal-breaker, of course, is at the action end of the deal, not the consequences end.
Andruw Jones, that's it. Atlanta GM John Schuerholz and manager Bobby Cox are dying to move their best player so they can help Ryan Howard get more pitches to jack out of the yard. Let's see... How about Rowand, Floyd and a couple of minor league pitching prospects, maybe Gio Gonzalez and J.A. Happ?
Nobody ever wonders, of course, how people that dumb managed to win their division 14 straight seasons.
The Blogs, phan phorums and unattached Hot Stove League regulars thought they had a Bobby Abreu for Manny Ramirez deal cold at the trade deadline. Bobby would play right and gimpy Trot Nixon would move to left. Even though Manny, generously labeled "eccentric" by Gillick last week, had already told the Red Sox he would not go to Baltimore. So why would they think he would go to Philadelphia?
Now they are plugging away again, packaging the Phillies' usual suspects for the Sawx unusual leftfielder and resident flake.”
Conlin goes on to censure the Phillies front office for their own incompetence, writing that “…the scouts, cross-checkers, assistants to the GM and other members of the Phillies team who have been making mostly bad decisions since this ownership group bought the Phillies after the 1981 season.”
As usual, Bill, you’ve got it right. The bloggers and fans are uninformed idiots, just as incompetent as the Phillies’ front office. We are fortunate you are here to point this out.
Monday, November 27, 2006
What’ya gonna’ do when nobody loves ya?
A team subjected to so much rejection could get a real complex if it had half a mind. That’s a big “if” according to most observers. A GM could get one, too. Frankly, the Phils are better off having refused to give in to the patently obscene contracts handed out thus far this off-season to aging veterans, converted outfielders who strike out a lot and overweight sluggers who flat out cannot field.
As for those who felt Randy Wolf owed the Phils for their loyalty to him as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, sorry, fellas, but you were dreaming all along. The Phillies didn’t do anything 29 other major league clubs would have done under the same circumstances. Indeed, had they been able to opt out from the $9 million they forked over to Wolf for less than half a season’s effort in 2006 they would have rushed to do so.
Right now Wes Helms looks like more than a bargain; he represents fiscal sanity if not the big bat the Phils wanted hittting behind All Everything Ryan Howard. He might turn out to be the sleeper of the Hot Stove League, or he may turn out to be the career .269 batter with a stone glove. One thing he won’t turn out to have been is overpriced and over-hyped. Oh, and one other thing that is kind of novel about Helms: he actually wanted to come here.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Barring a trade for Vernon Wells or a comeback announcement by Steve Carlton, I am taking off the next few days to celebrate Thanksgiving at home with my extended family. The menu always includes a few items peculiar to my upbringing in
I am responsible for cooking the turkey, stuffing and sauerkraut. My wife oversees the rest of the meal which resembles a cornucopia in variety and quantity. Everyone else pitches in equally when it comes to consuming our efforts.
Meantime, Pat Gillick gets a few days off as well, no doubt to contemplate the Phillies pitching needs, which remain not only the team's principal area of weakness, but with regards to the bullpen may still yield the best hope for improvement.
Monday, November 20, 2006
In the end baseball writers are fans, too, and what is clear now with Ryan Howard’s selection as the National League’s MVP is that most of them must have been caught up in all the excitement this kid generated every time he came to the plate. It's tough to choose anyone over Albert Pujols when your team needs a base hit, but it is tougher to choose anyone over Howard when you just want something to cheer about. Perhaps the greatest tribute to Howard's magical season is that hardly any writers gave a damn about the Phillies' fortunes overall but day in and day out the majority of them clearly wanted to know "How'd Howard do?".
Remind me again what Plan C is.
The Chicago Cubs have snatched Alfonso Soriano from the beckoning arms of Pat Gillick and if the Phillies’ GM has any sense and decorum he should send the Cubbies his congratulations and heartfelt thanks.
Eight years and $136 million!!?? Precisely the kind of contract the Phillies should be avoiding. Frankly, precisely the kind of contract any team should be avoiding, but that is another story. Eight years and $136 million!!?? That’s essentially a no-trade contract. Who’s going to take on Soriano’s $17 million per year if things go sour in, say, year four or five let alone six or seven? Well, we don’t have to worry about that outcome any longer.
MLB’s haves are flush with cash and many of them are spending it like sailors on shore leave.
The Phils still have a lot of problems to address, particularly protection for Ryan Howard (sorry, Wes, but you ain’t the man) and pitching, both starting and relief. There are still a number of options out there via trades but the Phillies don’t have many bargaining chips other than Aaron Rowand. They are unlikely to move Ryan Madson given their own shortcomings in the pen and they will no longer get anything for Gavin Floyd. Who else can they offer? The other worrisome prospect is that the Phils will overspend the money they just saved to re-sign Randy Wolf. While I am a fan of Wolf the battler and athlete, I am not a big fan of Wolf the junk ball-throwing hurler. My guess is he is looking for at least a three-year deal at $5 – 7 million per. That’s too much for a veteran guy who has never shown me he knows how to pitch.
At this point the Phillies don’t need to save salary by dumping Pat Burrell for .50 on the dollar or less. I’d rather see Pat bailing out on pitches over the inside corner of the plate and taking other ones right down Broadway than have the Phils unload him for next to nothing. As much as he infuriates us, Burrell’s bat is due for a decent season if his on-again-off-again pattern holds true. It would be nice is someone, perhaps Pat himself, let us and his current team in on the status of his feet. That wouldn’t be asking too much, even from a guy who is far from loquacious.
Inquirer columnist Jim Salisbury raises an interesting question in his piece today. He wonders when the Phillies might ask Jimmy Rollins to move to third base and open up shortstop for someone the likes of Miguel Tejada, perennially unhappy playing for the sad-sack Orioles. This may be the only bad idea Jim has ever come up with, publicly. Jimmy is too valuable up the middle, where Utley is steady but hardly spectacular. Moreover, having just signed Wes Helms, it would seem that this discussion’s time has passed. Finally, by all accounts Tejada, never a spectacular glove man, has lost more than a step or two in the field. Back to the drawing board on this one.
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Ryan Howard finds out today whether or not he sweeps the post-season awards when the Baseball Writers Association of America announces its NL MVP. The bet here is Albert Pujols nudges Howard for the award. It would be hard to vote against Pujols whose home run and rbi totals might very well have exceeded those of the Howard had he not lost time to injury. In every other respect, Pujols’ credentials equal or surpass those of Howard including as Erik Grissom among others would point out, his fielding.
But there is one factor that weighs more heavily in Howard’s favor and a lot of the voters, being human, will have a difficult time ignoring it. No one, not even King Albert, captured the imagination of the nation as much as Howard did. Not a single baseball fan wanted to be caught getting a cold one from the fridge when Howard came up to bat during his tremendous run. In that respect, Howard was more than the NL MVP; for a long stretch of time he was MLB’s MVP. Albert can't say that. Nor can the voters whatever their ballots may say.
Friday, November 17, 2006
Short post today. Tolerance for rumors and the money side of baseball is at an all-time low.
With apologies to Sports Illustrated….
You know the apocalypse is upon us when…
- A free agent pitcher who just had surgery in mid September to repair a partial tear of his rotator cuff is coveted by seven or eight teams.
- The fellow just named National League manager of the year will be in the broadcast booth next season, not on the bench, working for the Yankees.- The cost of conversation has risen to $51.1 million giving a whole new meaning to the tag line “Can you hear me now?”!
In other news, Gavin Floyd had himself a certifiably mediocre "season" in the AFL. Here is the summary from the Phillies web site:
RHP Gavin Floyd -- Floyd made his final start of the season against Phoenix on Saturday, allowing two runs on five hits over four innings. The 23-year-old, who still has an outside chance of cracking the Phillies' rotation in 2007, finished the AFL season with an 0-1 record and a 5.57 ERA over six starts.
An "outside chance"? What Yaqui medicine man did the Phillies hire in their PR department?
Frank Thomas just signed a two-year, $18 million deal with an option for a third year with the Toronto Blue Jays. I guess the market for 38-year old comeback players with a history of injury problems is a lot stronger than I imagined. The Jays looked at all the home runs and rbi's in the cavernous confines of Oakland's ptifiul stadium and decided Thomas was well-worth the gamble.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
So delighted are owners and players alike, they easily signed a new long-term agreement guaranteeing labor peace for several years to come. Not a single representative from either constituency who stood around the overflowing pot of gold dared piss in it.
So why am I in such a lousy mood?
The Daisuke Matsuzaka deal has me seeing red. The posting system is a sham, open to all sorts of shenanigans and otherwise as opaque and ill-conceived as any process in baseball. The Japanese teams may think they have MLB over a barrel when it comes to purchasing the rights to negotiate let alone sign their players, but they are mistaken. Only Bud Selig and his cronies have failed to figure that out. The leverage MLB has but appears reluctant to use or unable to recognize is that players like Matsuzaka want to play on the biggest stage in the game. Given their desire to don American uniforms, what Japanese teams would be content to thwart these players’ desires, restrict their movement, and deal with their discontent? If MLB refused to play this sham preliminary game of posting and went right for the straight negotiation, there would be less room for shenanigans at the very least. Until MLB restructures the process, at a minimum they should fix this lousy process by declaring that the winning bidder has a right to move on to the final negotiation stage and conclude a deal in 30 days or the next highest bidder earns that right. Better yet, they should jettison the posting nonsense altogether.
That is only part of the problem, however. The bigger problem MLB faces is what to do about the whole free agent situation and salary structure in the first place. As I wrote the other day, did anyone who knows the difference between a strikeout and a walk really believe the small market teams had a chance let alone opportunity to bid for Matsuzaka’s services? We all knew it would be the Yankees, Red Sox or maybe one other wealthy team that would end up the winner. No one in Kansas City even bothered to learn how to pronounce his name.
Compare that situation to the NFL. When a major free agent makes himself available in the NFL no one, not ESPN, NFL Films, Terry Bradshaw or Ray Didinger, has the slightest idea who is going to land him unless, and only then, the player himself states his intentions clearly. NLF free agents are as apt to sign with a team offering the best deal as the best opportunity. And unlike MLB, all NFL teams are in a position to deal.
MLB likes to point to the last several World Series winners, a different one in each of the last seven years, and congratulate itself for parity, but this is just another illusion. Championships may rotate at the top levels of the game, but for nearly half the franchises there is no hope. They cannot compete for the top players so they are unlikely to compete for the top prize. Would a salary cap be the answer in baseball? I don’t really know. Has it worked well in football and basketball? I don’t know that either though it appears on the surface that basketball’s success with it is questionable. We do know that football teams regularly let veteran players go before their careers are finished for reasons having everything to do with caps and nothing to do with X’s and O’s.
Baseball, however, has institutionalized a class structure that guarantees haves and have-nots. All involved may believe this golden age and calf will go on forever, uninterrupted by reality let alone economics, but like all bubbles – tulips and real estate – eventually it is going to burst.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Like everything else in our society, the Hot Stove League has become over-hyped and, yes, overheated. And this year’s crop of free agents is a very thin one!!
All one needs to know is the Boston Red Sox just paid $51.1 million for the right to talk to free agent pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Now they sit down and negotiate a contract with his agent, the always flexible and agreeable Scott Boras. Whether the Red Sox wanted to keep the young Japanese hurler away from the Evil Empire to the south or whether they coveted him outright no longer matters. Some have even suggested the Red Sox want to establish a more visible identity in the
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
If the Phillies don’t get their man, aka Alfonso Soriano, Pat Gillick is going to have to make a deal to improve his team and, frankly, he doesn’t have many chips with which to bargain. Pat Burrell is not an option given his no-trade clause. Gavin Floyd, reportedly still unable to pitch consistently at the AFL level, has minimal value and falling. The farm system has few arms that would help the Phils down the road let alone attract interest from other teams and those who do such as Gio Gonzalez, should be virtually untouchable. So, who ya’ gonna’ trade? Aaron Rowand is my top nominee and I doubt there are a lot of clubs out there who would be interested.
It could be a very unproductive off-season which would lead to a very unproductive on season given the holes that remain. Don’t say Gillick didn’t warn us with his comments at the July, 2006, trade deadline that he, for one, might be looking beyond 2007.
Until the Phillies do something constructive, I am casting about for something more concrete to discuss.
Hey, look over there, across the street. Yeah, the Flyers may be losing every night out but at least they are working the telephones, trying to right the ship.
Paul Holmgren, who just the other day had the label “interim” deleted from the front of his title as GM, has picked up just where Bobby Clarke left off, reacquiring players previously traded. Not a good sign, Paul. If you are going to emulate your mentor, you should leave out the parts about second-guessing yourself about past decisions.
This deal does underscore what makes hockey difficult to follow religiously for this sports fan. For every thrilling rush up and down the ice there is the inevitable dropping of gloves.
The Flyers’ excellent beat writer Tim Panaccio picks it up from here: Paul Holmgren's first move as general manager of the Flyers wasn't to get a 20-goal scorer to add life to an anemic offense.
Instead, it was to add life to a comatose dressing room with a guy who was continually offering encouragement from the bench during the Western Conference finals last season - Todd Fedoruk.
Here’s the “difficult” part: Flyers’ coach John Stevens noted that The thing you like about Fridge is he has that infectious personality; he is a fun guy and keeps everyone loose. He brings a level of enthusiasm, when he walks into a locker room. We do have a quiet team... . Fridge is one of those guys who brings life."
It's great; I'm excited to be going back to Philly, said Fedoruk, who is on injured reserve after suffering a fractured right cheekbone and broken orbital bone after a fight with
Sounds like a real fun guy alright!!
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So, how are the other occupants of the
Meanwhile, Chris Webber grows more and more unhappy as a Sixer. I have no idea how much is left on his contract and what options the Sixers have with regards to his ongoing tenure with them, but you can bet your last dollar Mo Cheeks and ownership won’t be quoted as saying what a fun guy Webber is or how much he brings to the locker room any time soon.
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The Eagles are back in favor in this town after their dominating win over a lousy
Meanwhile, much has been made of Andy Reid’s decision to hand the play-calling over to his offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. I thought it was interesting that when wide receiver Reggie Brown was interviewed after the game about the switch he acknowledged he had no idea who was calling the plays. Maybe it’s more about execution not authorship???
Monday, November 13, 2006
One by one the players reportedly of greatest interest to the Phillies keep dropping off the radar screen. Gary Sheffield was traded to
The rest of the free agents available in areas of need for the Phils are largely uninspiring veterans of varying accomplishment and ability whose warranties are about to expire. Most if not all of them will want multi-year deals, a fool’s errand from the Phillies’ perspective if ever there were one. Do we really want a Rich Aurilia for three years? There remains a better than even chance that no free agents will sign with the Phillies this off-season. They should be so lucky given the current list. The best bet remains to work out a trade to fill their most urgent needs: the back end of the bullpen and third base.
The Hot Stove league becomes more complicated with each passing season as GM”s must make decisions not only on offering deals to declared free agents but also on whether or not to offer arbitration to players whom they don’t really expect or want to re-sign with them but for whom compensatory draft picks are at stake as well. David Dellucci is the poster boy for this maneuver. The Phillies wouldn’t mind having him come off the bench for another season as a platoon player, but Dellucci is having none of that. If he walks without going to arbitration the Phils get nothing in return. If they offer him arbitration and he walks, they get a draft pick.
One player the Phillies would like to re-sign is pitcher Randy Wolf. There are some who suggest Wolf “owes” the Phillies something for standing by him throughout his surgery and recovery. That argument probably holds little water especially with Wolf and justifiably so. Had the Phillies been able to get out from under his guaranteed salary for 2006, they would have done so. Furthermore, if ever there were a pitcher ill-suited to
Friday, November 10, 2006
As we await real developments rather than rampant speculation on the baseball front, my thoughts temporarily turn elsewhere. Temporarily.
* * * * * * * *All politics may be local, but sports are even more so.
If you live anywhere in this general region and weren’t pulling for Rutgers last night for perhaps the first time in your life, you either grew up in
Trailing 25 – 7 at the half to the number three ranked Louisville Cardinals,
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Equally astonishing for altogether different reasons has been the Philadelphia Flyers’ complete collapse from contender to a team that is well on its way to setting a franchise record for futility.
Will the Fly boys ever win another game this season?
Perhaps more significantly, will the Flyers’ faithful return to the
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For the umpteenth week in a row the Eagles are in a must-win situation. Nearly every voice coming out of the locker room speaks of turning things around, regaining focus, and playing up to potential when what they could really use is a better running game, improved pass rush, and competent game plan and clock management. The feeling here is that no matter how hard the players try, the guys on the sidelines with the clipboards and earphones are the real weak link.
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The Sixers have gotten off to a decent start this season considering the low expectations for them. Allen Iverson continues to play his heart out. Mo Cheeks may have succeeded to some extent in convincing his squad defense does matter. Samuel Dalembert and Andre Iguoala may be beginning to reach their potentials. Most notable at this point, however, is the virtual disappearance of forward Chris Webber. As Webber’s contributions to this squad and basketball in general continue to fade, the guy responsible for his arrival in the first place, GM Billy King, is the one who is on the hottest seat. Look for him to be the first casualty of the season when things go south, as they invariably will.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
How lucky are we to be rooting for the team Ryan Howard plays for?
In a charming piece in this morning’s Inquirer Adam Rubin describes Howard’s experience during a just-concluded tour of
Little fazes this guy and even less goes to his head. Virtually unknown to Japanese baseball fans and journalists prior to the start of the series, he became an overnight sensation following his four home runs and .566 batting average. Meanwhile, the hardware just keeps piling up. Already named the Sporting News Player of the Year and winner of the Hank Aaron Award for 2006, Howard was just named the NL and MLB player of the year by his peers. He smiles that room illuminating smile of his and says the appropriate thanks to all the voters and probably wonders what all the fuss is about.
There can be no greater tribute to Howard than how other ball players speak of him: in short, with admiration, respect and affection. The other first baseman on the American squad,
Rubin’s descriptions of Howard eating sushi were priceless. Even more delightful was his description of the pain Howard felt in his legs, seated, eating sushi. The big guy kept shifting his position trying to get comfortable. Afterwards, Howard admitted that apart from downing the sea urchin and other delicacies, the hardest thing of all was just getting up.
If Howard were to move to
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
You’ve been playing baseball virtually nonstop since last February and March when you joined the United States squad for the inaugural WBC. Next, you played your heart out for nearly all of the Phillies 162 games. You didn’t even take time off for the All-Star break, which admittedly would have been awkward since you were voted a starter. Following the regular season, you did manage a brief involuntary vacation while you and your teammates watched the post-season on television, but as soon as the World Series concluded it was off to Japan for a tour with a squad of MLB stars including teammate Ryan Howard.
Time to take a break, Chase.
Memo to Ryan Howard: Don’t stop now.
Ryan, your playing streak has not lasted quite as long as that of your sidekick Chase, and, frankly, the way you are hitting everything out of sight on both sides of the Pacific it would be a shame to stop now. Nonetheless, in a few days it looks like you, too, are going to have to sit a spell. You can pick up where you left off come next April.
Memo to Art Howe: Art, could it be we hardly knew ya’?
Looks like Art Howe may put in the shortest tenure in Phillies history as a third base coach if the Texas Rangers’ new head man, Ron Washington, hires him to be his bench coach. Talk about sending a man home.
Memo to Pat Gillick: Don’t let all that money burn a hole in your pocket!
Just when the Phillies finally have gotten out from under on some of the onerous long-term contracts they lavished on players in the past and just when they appear to be working on getting out from under one more if they can move Pat Burrell, all signs indicate they are interested in going all in on one free agent, Alfonso Soriano. GM Pat Gillick and manager Charlie Manuel have been sending out all sorts of vibes that Soriano would look very good in red pinstripes. The only announced sticking point would be if Soriano insisted on a no-trade clause as part of the deal. Gillick will have none of that. My considerably less money is on Soriano signing elsewhere.
Memo to Pat Burrell: Widen your trade zone if not your strike zone.
Pat, do you really want to endure another summer of boos in Philadelphia? How many more times can you back away from balls right down the middle of Broadway? In the end, Pat, are you happy?
While I would admit you are still a decent threat to knock in some runs, your time in Philadelphia hasn’t exactly been gratifying…to all involved. If it is true some players benefit from a change in scenery, you are not the exception that will disprove the rule.
Monday, November 06, 2006
The race for the National League MVP award is the tightest in recent memory with Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols each deserving of the honor. As if their regular season exploits weren’t sufficient evidence of their prowess, both players have continued padding their credentials in the post-season. It is worth noting, however, that ballots were sent in by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, two from each city, by the end of the regular season. The post season cannot figure in the voting.
Pujols, of course, played an official post-season that will go down in the record books. His production helped the Cardinals win their first World Series in 24 years, but it cannot help him with the voters. Howard had to wait to put on his final spurt for the current MLB tour of
By the way, Pujol’s first Gold Glove cannot help him either, that award having been announced after the World Series. Good thing, too, because the “sure-handed and nimble fielder with a powerful and accurate throwing arm” that Howard is fast becoming would make next year’s contest even closer!!
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The Phillies continue to be in the thick of several rumors regarding free agents and possible trades but thus far none of them convince me they will improve themselves significantly. The headliners among those thought to be on Pat Gillick’s radar include Gary Sheffield and Alfonso Soriano. The former may still be a dangerous hitter, but at age 38 he is a defensive liability with no good position and prone to injuries. He is also unlikely to be a positive clubhouse presence given his well-publicized annoyance with his current club, the Yankees, who exercised their option on him thus preventing
Alfonso Soriano is also rumored to be high on the Phillies’ shopping list and would be inserted somewhere in their lineup to provide protection for Ryan Howard. Were Soriano to bat fifth, the spot in the lineup where he might provide the most protection, the Phillies number four and five batters would enter 2007 with 341 strikeouts between them from the previous season. That’s a lot of balls not even put into play. Too many. Power is not the protection Howard or the Phillies need; putting the ball in play is.
In the end, the strongest argument for signing either
Gillick’s track record is not that of a gambler; if anything, he prefers the familiar to the unknown as the Franklin and Rhodes signings indicated. While I have difficulty imagining him having made so much effort to free up salary only to turn around and give a big chunk of it to Soriano for five plus years or Sheffield for one, he does not strike me as someone who is planning to be stick around for more than another year or so. If that is the case, he might just decide he has nothing to lose by placing his biggest bet on Soriano with
Friday, November 03, 2006
There have been good signings and bad ones over the years. To read one person’s opinion on them take a look at this fascinating article by The Baseball Analysts , who provide an excellent summary. (Note, this piece was written prior to the start of the 2006 season.) In several articles I’ve read one thread runs through nearly all of them: free agent pitchers rarely deliver the goods the way free agent position players do. The conclusion of many observers is that it’s best to spend money developing pitchers rather than trying to acquire them. The question I would ask has two parts: 1) Has this always been the case; and, 2) does this notion apply to trades as well as free agency?
Throughout the Phillies’ history developing pitchers has usually worked out better than acquiring them, but when there were exceptions they have been real doozies: Steve Carlton and Curt Schilling, both acquired via trades not free agency. I haven’t seen a study comparing trades and FA signings, but I suspect the former works out better in part because the dollars aren’t generally as high and thus the expectations aren’t either. Another factor may be the historical timing of trades vs. free agency acquisitions. In the past, teams might have been more inclined to trade for pitchers when they were very young in order to develop them within their own systems and only sign them as free agents when they were older and more established. Today the two approaches have converged more as virtually every pitcher with the required years of service under his belt will opt for free agency, often in his late twenties or early thirties, thus moving up the age at which teams will tender offers on the open market.
One things remains clear: when it comes to free agency, GM’s seem ever-willing to give untold millions to the Carl Pavano’s of the world on the off chance they will come through in a big way and lead their new team to the promised land. It’s a lottery and like all gambles, some pay off while most do not.
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By the way, if anyone out there has ever see a more “sure-handed and nimble fielder with a powerful and accurate throwing arm” than Ryan Howard I’d like to hear from them.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
One of the most coveted players on the open market this off-season isn’t exactly a free agent in the usual sense. Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, the 26-year old star of the WBC and the real deal according to ex-pat Bobby Valentine, will be the subject of some intense bidding and even more intense maneuvering. As it turns out, his services will depend first on the mysterious process known as posting.
Here is how Going Deep Interactive describes the process:
Japanese players are not subject to the Rule 4 Draft, which currently includes only residents of the United States, Canada, or Puerto Rico (or other U.S. territories), or non-residents attending high school or college in the United States.
But they're not really free agents, either, unlike Latin American players, who are eligible to negotiate and sign with any club so long as they are at least 16 years old.
The process to sign a Japanese player who is already playing professionally is, in a way, like the amateur draft, with one basic, significant exception. While the right to negotiate with a drafted amateur is based on a team, in reverse order of record, using a draft choice on him, the right to negotiate with a Japanese player is secured by the highest bidder.
At any point between November 1 and March 1, a Japanese team can "post" one of its players, which essentially means it puts its player up for bid to see how much a Major League club will pay the team to get it to release the player from his Japanese contract. Sometimes the team initiates the process to see what it can get for the player. Other times the player asks his team to post him. And sometimes, a Major League club may anonymously request a status check, basically putting the Japanese team on notice that it has an interest in a particular player to see whether the Japanese team would consider posting him.
Regardless of which trigger is involved, the Japanese team has full discretion as to whether to post the player. If interested, it notifies the MLB Commissioner's Office that it wishes to post the player. MLB then distributes official notice to the 30 big league clubs advising that the player in question will be available for posting starting on a certain date. The clubs are given 72 hours to submit a blind bid for the player. After the 72-hour window expires, the club that submitted the highest blind bid is awarded the right to negotiate with the player.
The club and player then have 30 days to make a deal. If the club comes to an agreement with the player, the blind bid money goes to the Japanese team as a transfer fee. If there is no agreement with the player, no money exchanges hands between the MLB club and the Japanese team (the bid money is returned), and the player cannot be reposted for another year.
The system was created in response to Hideo Nomo's 1995 "retirement" from Japanese baseball, which effectively allowed him to sign with the Dodgers without compensation to the Kintetsu Buffaloes. The system does not apply to players with at least 10 years of service in the Japanese professional leagues.
The posting bid is sometimes as significant as the dollars involved in the eventual contract: the Mariners bid $13 million before the 2001 season in order to negotiate with Ichiro Suzuki, whom they eventually signed to a three-year, $14 million deal. On the other end of the spectrum,
The posting bids on Matsuzaka are expected to be in the Ichiro range, if not higher. The Rangers have reportedly sent director of pro and international scouting A.J. Preller to
Buster Olney, of ESPN, offers the following, which should only complicate matters further (while no doubt increasing the attorneys’ fees):
The posting system is deeply flawed. For example, here's one sabotage scenario that might interest a team like
Even though as many as ten teams might post their interest in Matsuzaka, the final number of teams willing to meet his and