Still Only January

Parochial vision is rarely 20-20, so it isn’t surprising Phillies fans are fretting about the holes and weaknesses, perceived and real, on the current roster without regard to the other guys’ problems. The reality is every team, especially in their division, has problems, too. The Mets’ starting pitching is questionable; the Marlins’ bullpen is suspect and much of their roster will be entering its sophomore year together; the Braves are a shadow of their former selves though they will score some runs; and the Nationals are, charitably, a huge mess.

Relativism being what it is, however, there is little consolation in considering the other guys’ plight. There is even less to be had trusting to luck, especially late in a game, where the Phillies bullpen is thin and one right shoulder from being much thinner. The Phils may yet make a move before April, with Jon Lieber or another starter rumored to be the bait, but the 40-man roster appears to be set with the 25-man squad still to be sorted out.

Offensively, the Phils will score runs even if the core of their lineup cannot match last year’s numbers. Chase Utley is now a proven hitter. So is Jimmy Rollins. It’s hard to believe, but Ryan Howard is still learning and, more important, adjusting. No matter how many home runs he hits this season, the youngster’s ability to hit for power and average is his most astonishing asset. If he cuts down even 10-15% on his strikeouts, he will raise his batting average. People tend to forget he led the Phillies in average last season.

If anything, George S.’s infamous “black hole” should see more light this coming season provided the Phils get some offense out of the catching position, which means Carlos Ruiz must see considerable playing time. Management acknowledges he is a better hitter than Rod Barajas; it’s his defense they worry about, specifically his throwing. Right now it looks like Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand and the catcher will man the 6, 7, and 8 spots. If Ruiz is in the lineup, Rowand’s bat remains the most suspect of the trio, his in-and-out looping swing guaranteed to hit the ball softly to the right side more often than not.

Defensively, the Phils are as good if not better than last season even with Wes Helms at third. Rowand is a good, not great centerfielder, and Victorino will be stellar in right, an improvement over Bobby Abreu in every respect. With Pat Burrell is left, the Phils’ corner outfielders have two of the best arms in the league. Erik Grissom, author of the estimable Philliesflow, believes Ryan Howard’s defense is something of a liability, but both he and Howard will come around this season. Chase Utley gets to everything, has a fair arm, still struggles a bit with the pivot, but overall is a solid second baseman. J-Roll is one of the best.

The starting rotation has a decidedly new look with Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton joining the staff and Jamie Moyer beginning his first full season as elder statesman. The other day I noticed Peter Gammons wrote a piece regarding predicting the future in which he cautioned against the pitfalls of such prognostications, especially during the Hot Stove League, observing that, “Any of us can sit here with the winds howling off Buzzards Bay during the 12 days of Christmas and predict that, say, the Phillies will play the Indians in the World Series with an opening matchup of Cole Hamels and Jeremy Sowers.”

Notice he said Hamels, not Myers or Garcia. Ah, yes, but let us also note it is still only January and right on cue, the winds are indeed howling in Philadelphia and the temperatures have dropped into the '20's and ‘30’s.

Management Styles

All joking aside, someone needs to delete the Texas Rangers’ phone number(s) from Pat Gillick’s speed dial without further delay. With this latest signing of an ex-Ranger, Antonio Alfonseca, the Phillies GM has proved beyond a reasonable doubt he has some sort of fixation with that franchise. It would be one thing if we were talking about a one-way street that approached that between the Yankees and Kansas City Athletics in the ‘50’s and ‘60’s, but we most decidedly are not. Instead, we are witnessing yet another deal between the Phils and a franchise whose record of futility is less grim only because its entire history is so much shorter.

So, until Gillick can demonstrate some self-control, others must act. Alfonseca’s last good season was the same year when everyone was atwitter over Y2K. Most recently he had an awful stint with the Rangers before they released him due to injury and ineffectiveness. According to reports, Alfonseca chose the Phillies over the Marlins, the only two clubs apparently in the running. Imagine, he chose to sign with the team that offered him nearly three times as much money. Aren’t we the lucky ones?! The signing is one more in a series of gambles by Gillick on aging relievers with shaky immediate pasts. If the move hardly inspires confidence in us, imagine what it will be like to play behind Alfonseca.

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By any reasonable standards the just-concluded season for the Eagles was a remarkable one. A fast start out of the gate was suddenly and dramatically halted by stinging losses to Tennessee and Indianapolis and, of course, the season-ending injury to Donovan McNabb. Just as remarkable was the resurrection of Jeff Garcia when nearly everyone else had given him up for dead and the emergence of Brian Westbrook as one of the truly great backs in the league. In the midst of all this turmoil, stolid Andy Reid turned over the offensive play-calling to his offensive coordinator (how’s that for a novelty?!) and, more significantly, coaxed a remarkable string of performances from his battered and bruised charges just when everyone in town, yours truly included, had given up the season.

Reid’s greatest asset is his steady hand on the tiller and his obviously methodical, even-tempered approach to his players and coaches no matter how daunting the circumstances. These attributes serve him and the team well, particularly in the locker room and on the practice field, where doubts first arise and can get quickly out of control. Regrettably, the debit side of his ledger is brought into dramatic relief in the crucible of game-day crises, particularly as time is running out. The decision to punt on fourth and fifteen with less than two minutes remaining in the game represented Andy Reid at his crunch-time worst. If ever there were a time to gamble, that was it. Of course, that would have been going against character and if we have learned anything about Reid during his long and successful tenure in Philadelphia, he does not change who he is no matter what the circumstances. On balance, his steadfast determination serves him well; when it fails him, the results are dramatic.

Comings And Goings

Under whelmed. That’s the only way to put it regarding the recent signings by the Phils. Has-beens . Never-weres. Guys who skipped town, even country, to rediscover whatever it was they lost if, indeed, they ever had it. Guys whose stat sheets pale when compared to their medical records. And all the while the Phils have failed to address their most critical need: the bullpen. We can argue into the wee hours whether they have enough starting pitching (talk about a few wings and a prayer) and offense, but if the Phils go into the later innings and can’t hold leads, a distinct possibility, they are in big trouble.

* * * * * * *

With Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell in the outfield the Phillies have a decent chance to see all three starters go down to injuries, the first two because they play all out all the time and the third because his wrist and foot could betray him at any moment.

With “The Catch” burned indelibly into their psyches, fans tend to forget how many times Victorino also threw himself into walls and turf only to get up slowly. He plays every bit as hard as Rowand with more luck on his side thus far, but his style doesn’t lend itself to longevity or an injury-free campaign.

One thing I don’t look forward to seeing in 2007 is Rowand, Victorino and Utley converging on a shallow pop fly.

* * * * * * *

As a follow up to my lack of enthusiasm for the fellows filling out roster spots on the 2007 Phillies, has anyone ever considered how much of a drop-off there is between the starting nine of most clubs and their benches? Does this same disparity occur in the other major sports? There sure seem to be a lot more flotsam and jetsam in major league baseball than ever before. Jeez, even Randall Simon is being given another shot at making the roster.

* * * * * * *

The next time I complain about salaries in baseball (and those of you who follow this space closely know that will be any moment), remind me that things could be worse: the Phillies can consider themselves fortunate they were never stuck with Chris Webber or, for that matter, Billy King. The Sixers have finally admitted what everyone else knew two years ago when King acquired the decrepit veteran forward in the first place: he's done. They have bought out his contract and will place Webber on waivers this AM. I love the quotes attributed to King that Webber no longer fits in the Sixers' plans. One week into 2007 and the overmatched GM has already uttered the understatement of the year.

The whole deal is beyond my expertise or interest other than to note as Phil Jasner wrote in today's Daily News, [Webber's salary is] currently listed on the salary cap at $20,718,750 this season and $22,312,500 next season, [but]those figures will be amended to reflect any reduction, with the total reduction spread over the two seasons.

Twenty-plus million per season for a guy who was shot. That's worth bitching about.

Cal Ripken

For this lifetime baseball fan, before there were the Phillies there were the Orioles.

Growing up in Baltimore, rooting for Brooks Robinson, still the only player in a baseball uniform I idolized, living and dying with every win and loss, I remained faithful to the home team despite my peregrinations around the country. Eventually, I was driven into the arms of the Phillies by proximity and disdain for the O's current owner and his ruinous handling of a once-admired franchise.

Before that final conversion, Cal Ripken was the transitional player for me, marking the end of the franchise as I had known it -- competitive, admirable - and the one that would eventually replace it -- woeful and dysfunctional. Ripken, literally a member of the Orioles' family with a pedigree, began what turned out to be his Iron Man streak a year before Robinson would be elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, a quarter of a century later, he joins his legendary teammate as the third great infielder to wear an Orioles cap upon his induction, Eddie Murray being the other one.

Ripken will always be remembered for The Streak and for his dedication to the game, its history as well as its craft. But if a single image of him endures, it will be the "celebration" lap he took around the perimeter of Camden Yards that night in 1995 when he broke Lou Gehrig's record. With baseball still reeling from the strike that disrupted the game the year before, driving many long-time fans from the stands and the game, it was Ripken's slow jog around the stadium that night, literally reaching out and up to the fans who had applauded his work ethic, that is generally credited with beginning the healing process.

For all I know Ripken may have planned the lap in advance, but to the blue collar fans in my blue collar home town, it was a genuine and spontaneous gesture of affection. And to the millions of viewers who tuned in to watch that night, it was a welcome salve that smoothed over the gulf that had grown between the wealthy young men who play the game and the ordinary fans who cheered them on.

Baseball has never looked back since that day, except in gratitude. Today, they made their gratitude and appreciation official.

Old-Timers Play On

There may be a chronic shortage of quality starting pitching in this era, but there is no shortage of old-timers from earlier times who still feel the itch, headlined by Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and that perennial will-he-or-won’t-he legend, Roger Clemens.

Johnson was just traded back to the Arizona Diamondbacks last week after a less-than-happy two year tenure in the Bronx. Twenty wins shy of the 300 total that guarantees enshrinement at Cooperstown (as if Johnson really needs to worry about that ultimate destination), Johnson agreed to return to Phoenix only after being offered a two-year, $26 million extension of his contract so that he can reach the hallowed mark. The 43-year old Johnson went 17-11 with the Yankees last season, but his ERA ballooned to 5.00, 1.78 points higher than his career mark, and he struggled with injuries throughout the campaign. If we are to believe all parties involved, his biggest problem during his time as a Yankee was playing in the world’s alleged biggest media circus, not diminishing health or skills. There must be some truth to that notion since Johnson literally got into a tiff with reporters the day he landed in NY two years ago while on his way to the press conference announcing his arrival.

Maddux, meanwhile, remains an effective pitcher at age 40, but in signing with San Diego during this off-season, is joining his fourth club since 2003. The accelerating rate at which he is filing change-of-address cards with the Post Office has not reached hanging-on proportions, yet, but the direction is a little suggestive of those greats who refused to acknowledge father time is ultimately the great arbiter behind the plate. See Steve Carlton for details. Maddux won fifteen games for the Dodgers in 2006 while losing 14. He still fields his position with the best of them, and it should be noted that those skills, too, are in short supply on today’s pitching mounds. See the Detroit Tigers staff for details.

Clemens is en route to becoming the most famous part-time player, let alone starter, of his or any other generation. Who else can announce to the baseball world for the third year running that he will begin play in earnest sometime around the All-Star break and still be the object of so many general managers’ affections? Speculation regarding his latest “comeback” from “retirement” has him signing with the Yankees, who are alleged to be the team whose cap Roger wants to wear when he enters the Hall of Fame in 2050, or whenever his five-year waiting period following official and final retirement elapses. To those of you who don’t know, the folks in Cooperstown get the final say regarding whose cap an entrant can wear, but as far as I can determine they have never been challenged or whether or not a member of the Hall can un-retire and play again.

A Better Way

Chalk up yet another instance in which the NFL has its act together much more than MLB when it comes to...well...just about everything regarding public relations, organization and procedure.

Yesterday, LaDainian Tomlinson was named the NFL's MVP by the Associated Press (which confers the defacto official MVP award) for 2006 in a landslide vote that was never in doubt. The key point here is that he was named the winner prior to the start of the post-season. Indeed, the voters found enough time to cast and tabulate their ballots between the final week of the regular season and the start of the playoffs.

MLB, on the other hand, has never figured out how to name it's league MVP's prior to the playoffs and World Series. Instead, the announcement comes more than a month after the last out has been recorded, and, thus, the entire process is inevitably embroiled in controversy as voters, pundits, players and fans alike point out that post-season play should have no bearing on the award and then, more often than not, conveniently fail to heed their own warnings.

All Over The Lot

Hang on just a minute. If anyone thinks baseball has cornered the market when it comes to handing out ridiculous contracts, look no further than the deal Alabama just awarded Nick Saban, $32 million for eight years. Guaranteed. This is a college football coach we're talking here, one who incidentally hasn't hung around very long at any of his previous posts, college or professional, and who has no history at this particular university. Eight year guaranteed contracts would be a stretch even for coaches with a long tenure at an institution, and Alabama has been burning through enough of them in the recent past that one would think they'd learned a lesson. Apparently not. Eight year guaranteed contracts might as well carry the subtitle "Coach for Life", something that puts Saban on the same level as Bear Bryant...at least until they blow the whistle and kick off.

Oh, and by the way, the contract calls for up to $4 million in bonuses should a Saban-coached Tide roll into a bowl game.

No word at this point on how the deal is being viewed in the Chemistry Department, but we can guess.

* * * * * * *

Ruben Amaro has never struck me as a particular astute baseball man, but then, I've always given him the benefit of the doubt because he is the Phillies' assistant GM and thus not really calling the shots. Moreover, whenever GM positions open up in other cities, Amaro's name is frequently mentioned, so somebody out there must be impressed. After yesterday's comment about Ryan Howard's contract status with the team, you can put me down as definitely not undecided. Amaro gets no more benefits from this quarter; he isn't smart or diplomatic enough. Asked what the organization planned to do about Howard's contract given his monster year and his bargain-basement salary, Amaro bluntly stated "We're not doing something on Ryan Howard. He's not our priority."

Let's review Howard's role on this team apart from leading them in most offensive categories and Awards won since his arrival.

He is undoubtedly the face of the organization, literally, his image plastered everywhere. Did anyone in, say, Denver, give a damn what the Phillies did day-in and day-out in 2006? Next question. Did those same fans wonder whether or not Howard homered the night before? Did teams pitch around Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell or Chase Utley?

Let's take another approach. Can anyone recall broadcasters, reporters and commentators speaking so fondly of a local athlete, not just for his production on the field but for the way he carried himself, especially when everyone with a microphone or notepad wanted a piece of him? Even in Japan the fans and media could not get enough of this guy. Neither could his teammates in Philadelphia and among the touring MLB stars.

Let's get mercenary here, which is presumably what Amaro had in his narrow mind. When the Phillies push ticket sales this off-season and beyond, who are they going to dangle in front of prospective fans as the biggest enticement to come out to the ballpark? At at time when local sports heroes are dropping like flies or departing altogether, Howard stands out for his performance and personality.

"Not our priority"?

* * * * * * *

It looks like Carlos Ruiz is the backup. None other than the Phillies web site has anointed Rod Barajas the starter and tutor to the younger Ruiz. It's hard to figure out what it is the alleged brain trust of the Phillies does not like about Ruiz, but clearly something is sticking in their collective craw. Hopefully, what we have here is merely another situation that resembles the slow integration of a rookie into the starting lineup, something the Phillies excel at. Ruiz showed he can hit at the major league level when given steady at-bats. Whether or not the pitchers like the way he handles them is something harder to determine, but based on his late season appearances in 2006, Ruiz earned the nod. Nevertheless, Charlie Manuel prefers veterans and may not want the inexperienced Ruiz handling a pitching staff with two newcomers and a few temperamental holdovers.

The Hall Beckons...For Some

A friend of mine once remarked, speaking of an industry other than baseball, that there were so many awards given out these days there must be one for everyone. He was exaggerating slightly, but his point was well taken: there are a lot of awards bestowed by a lot of organizations and institutions, especially, it seems, in baseball. MVP; Cy Young; Comeback Player of the Year; Player of the Year; Manager of the Year; Rolaids Reliever of the Year; Silver Sluggers; Rookie of the Year; Sporting News Player of the Year; etc..

At a minimum, these awards carry with them a guaranteed listing in perpetuity of the recipients in the annals of baseball and, for some, a nice financial bonus depending on their contracts. The granddaddy of them all, of course, is election to the Hall of Fame, which confers immortality. Is it any wonder, therefore, that election to the Hall inevitably engenders the greatest debate regarding the candidates’ worthiness?

Less than a week remains before we learn the names of this year’s Hall of Fame inductees. In the time leading up to the announcement, we have once again witnessed the annual rites associated with baseball’s greatest honor, namely what are the criteria for entry and who among the candidates is worthy.

The question of criteria was never firmly established beyond the following eligibility rules:

Eligible Candidates — Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:

1. A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning twenty (20) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.
2. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).
3. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.
4. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
5. Any player on Baseball's ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate.

Interestingly, the founders also felt it necessary to keep out one-time wonders such as a Don Larsen with this rule:

Automatic Elections — No automatic elections based on performances such as a batting average of .400 or more for one (1) year, pitching a perfect game or similar outstanding achievement shall be permitted.

Thus we, the non-voting public, are left with the endless debates regarding who was dominant and for how long; which player(s) “defined” a position in terms of defense while hitting more than respectably; whose numbers matched or exceeded current members of the Hall; who was a “feared” opponent and why; etc..

This year’s list of eligible candidates include two certain entrants – Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn – one certifiably controversial candidate – Mark McGwire – and a host of players who have been on the ballot for many years without gaining entry, most notably Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson, Lee Smith, Tommy John, Dave Parker, Steve Garvey, Jack Morris, Dave Concepcion and Don Mattingly. The list is completed by a group of lesser players including names like Bobby Witt, who is eligible for the first time and has absolutely no shot at entry and others, such as Harold Baines and Alan Trammell, who had estimable careers but are unlikely to get sufficient support. Finally, there are names such as Albert Belle, whose demeanor especially toward the voting writers, was nothing short of openly hostile, and who will be elected only when the distance between bases is reduced to 80 feet.

For what it is worth, my ballot would include the following:

1. Gwynn
2. Ripken
3. Gossage
4. Blyleven

McGwire should not make the Hall on merit, or more precisely a lack thereof. His overall totals do not measure up to the general standards set by current members apart from his 583 home runs and his slugging percentage. Even though at least some of his power figures are suspect, I agree with that camp arguing it is impossible to determine without concrete evidence who was definitely using steroids and what portion of their career totals were thus affected. Where I differ from their point of view is in concluding that some of their numbers were “falsely” achieved even though the likely substances had not been deemed “illegal” at the time by MLB. We are talking about the spirit if not the letter of the law and one look at the younger McGwire and a comparison with the later image raises all sorts of red flags about his use of supplements.

Gwynn and Ripken meet all of the Hall’s criteria though, remarkably, a few voices have argued Ripken’s Iron Man streak should not be a factor in the voters’ minds as if that were his only achievement. There will always be dissenters in any vote. Remember, even Willie Mays did not receive unanimous support when he became eligible. Gossage deserves election in this, his eighth year on the ballot. He was a dominating indeed fearsome presence for many years in a pressure-packed position for teams frequently in contention. The Hall of Fame site offers these biographical details:

RICH GOSSAGE: 8^th year on the ballot… Pitched 22 seasons… Led the AL in saves three times (1975, ’78, ’80)… Two seasons with 30-plus saves… Named The Sporting News AL Fireman of the Year in 1975 and ’78… Named to nine All-Star teams (1975-’78, ‘80-’82, ’84-‘85)… Finished in top 10 in AL MVP voting twice in 1980 (3^rd) and ’81 (9^th)… Received Cy Young Award votes in 1975 (T6^th), ’78 (5^th), ’80 (3^rd), ’81 (6^th) and ’84 (5^th)…Ranks 17^th all-time in saves and 10^th in games pitched…One AL Division Series (1981); three saves and no earned runs in 6 2/3 ALDS innings… Four League Championship Series (1978, ’80, ’81, ’84); owns 4.91 ERA and three saves in 11 LCS innings… Three World Series (1978, ’81, ’84); owns 2.63 ERA and two saves in 13 2/3 WS innings… Member of 1978 WS championship team.

Blyleven is a “victim” of having pitched during an era when there were certainly other dominating eventual Hall of Fame pitchers around. He also had the misfortune to play for a lot of mediocre teams yet he put together impressive totals by any standard. Here is the HOF site’s bio on him:

BERT BLYLEVEN: 10^th year on the ballot… Pitched 22 seasons…Ranks 5^th all-time in strikeouts, 9^th in starts, 9^th in shutouts, 25^th in wins, and 7^th in innings pitched… Led AL in shutouts three times (1973, ’85, ’89), innings twice (1985, ’86), complete games once (1985), and strikeouts once (1985)… Tabbed by The Sporting News as AL Rookie Pitcher of the Year (1970) and Comeback Player of the Year (1989)… One 20-win season (1973) and eight 200-plus strikeout seasons… Received AL Cy Young votes in 1973 (T-7^th), ’84 (3^rd), ’85 (T-3^rd), and ’89 (4^th)… Two All-Star teams (1973, ’85)… Pitched a 6-0 no-hitter against the California Angels on Sept. 22, 1977 … Shares AL single-game record for longest one-hit complete game – 10 innings ( June 21, 1976 )… Three League Championship Series (1970, ’79, ’87); owns a 3-0 record with a 2.59 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 24 1/3 LCS innings… Two World Series (1979, ’87); owns a 2-1 record with a 2.35 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 23 WS innings… Member of two WS championship teams in 1979 and ’87.

The Year In Selective Review

The year just concluding in local sports was most notable for its ups and downs.

As far as reversals of fortune go, the Eagles late season resurrection may be the stuff of legends, Delaware Valley division. No franchise in all of professional sport may dominate its local landscape quite like the Philadelphia Eagles do. During the off-season, training camp and regular season they absolutely rule the roost. (One wonders whether an appearance in the World Series by the Phillies would outdraw the Eagles if the Cowboys were in town the same day.) So it was noteworthy a mere month ago when all hope for the current season seemed lost as quarterback Donovan McNabb went down with a knee injury. With six games still remaining, nearly everyone gave up on them and, not coincidentally, their head coach, whose play-calling and clock management had been suspect for years. Yet a mere six weeks later Andy Reid is again the toast of the town and the Eagles, already in the playoffs, are generally considered to be one of the hottest clubs in an admittedly cool National Football Conference.

The Phillies once again toyed with their faithful, stumbling out of the gate in April and putting on another late season rally that again fell short of the playoffs. To compensate for the overall team failure, however, the boys of summer gave us one Ryan Howard, the most personable and formidable slugger to come along in many a year. Howard impressed fans on both sides of the Pacific Ocean as well as voters who hand out various and sundry hardware at the close of business. Teammate Chase Utley, another sophomore sensation and All-Star, kept pace with Howard throughout the season as far winning the hearts and minds of fans.

Meanwhile, the Sixers provided precious few ups (truth be told I cannot think of a single one) on their way to another dismal season. They finished out of the playoffs at the beginning of 2006 and picked up right where they left off in the Fall of this year. Allen Iverson finally did what GM Billy King had been unable to do: pulled the trigger himself and demanded a trade. Meanwhile, to celebrate his pre-trade banishment from the premises, his teammates went on a ten-game losing streak, which was briefly interrupted by a two-game winning streak. The losing streak has resumed since that two-game aberration and AI’s eventual departure for the snows of Denver. He will be missed by many, but not, apparently, by his coach.

The Flyers were competitive last season albeit old and slow on defense and those liabilities took their toll as 2006 dawned, concluding with another early exit from the playoffs. Picking up where they left off, the Flyers began the current season in disarray that lead to the firing of head coach Ken Hitchcock and the resignation/firing of GM Bob Clarke. Instead of old, the Fly boys became young in the extreme: more than half their roster is made up of guys who were in the minors a year ago. As might be expected, they quickly sank to the absolute bottom of the NHL standings, all divisions considered. Last night they set a franchise record by losing their tenth straight game.

2007 doesn't hold any promise for the Sixers or Flyers, unless one considers draft position. As for the Eagles, the likely outcome of their playoff appearance(s) will be a dose of reality. The Phillies can be rightfully labeled a work in progress. If they manage to fill a few glaring holes in their bullpen, they should be competitive. Whether that translates into their first playoff appearance in fourteen years remains to be seen.

It's Tough Out There

Ho hum, yet another athlete departs and says Philadelphia is "hardest city in the world to play in."

In the next life I'd like to see all of these guys who think it's tough here to spend a season each in Boston and New York and then tell us all where Philadelphia ranks on the tough-o-meter!!

Just Your Garden Variety $100 Million Dollar Players

So much for the fantasy of Vernon Wells in a Phillies uniform. Admittedly, as fantasies go this one was way out there. Probably no more than a few of us even entertained the notion but we are back on our medication now. Before we move on, or back, to reality, and in light of my recent post on salary madness in baseball, it is impossible to ignore the huge contract Wells just signed with Toronto without comparing it to those signed just this past off-season by a few other outfielders.

Wells is a very fine player who at age 28 should be reaching his peak. A career .285 hitter who has slugged 200 home runs over his seven seasons, Wells has also won three consecutive Gold Gloves. What’s more, during a brief stint this post-season as an in-studio analyst on ESPN, he was impressive: bright, articulate, insightful. This guy, as they say, appears to have the whole package.

Leaving aside character, do Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee merit nearly as much money as Wells? Soriano is a high-strikeout kind of guy with lots of power, too. He has hit 208 home runs, 41 of them last year alone. Over the same seven years the 30-year old Soriano has a .280 batting average. He was among the league leaders in outfield assists last season (he may have even led the league) but will never be mistaken for Willie Mays.

Interestingly enough, Lee, also 30, has logged seven years in the big leagues himself. Over that period he is a lifetime .286 hitter with 221 home runs. No one would mistake him for Willie Mays Hayes let alone his namesake!

Wells extended his current contract with Toronto last week, signing for $126 million over seven years. Soriano signed for $136 million for eight years with the Cubs in November.. Lee signed a six year deal with Houston for an even $100.

To summarize: three guys, all with the same major league experience whose career batting averages are within six points of each other and whose home run totals and within 21 of each other. Only when comparing them as fielders do the differences stand out.

Get used to it, baseball fans. We have entered the era of the good but not certifiably great (yet, if ever) $100 million player. When I was a lad we used to hear of heated debates that went something like this: who would you rather have on your team, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Henry Aaron, or Roberto Clemente? I would seriously doubt our $100 million outfielders of today (you can throw in Carlos Beltran while we are at it) are the subject of such debates.

'Tis The Season To Give

Another off-season, another installment of Beantown Vs. The Evil Empire.  Ho hum.

Now, before you get the idea those two clubs play in a higher league let me remind you the Tigers and Athletics played each other in the ALCS.  As for the best teams money bought in 2006, the Red Sox failed to make the post-season and the Yankees made an early exit.  Only the networks, their spnsors and Tommy LaSorda were disappointed.  Everyone outside Route 128 and the Island of Manhattan openly rejoiced.

Still, when one looks at all the money being thrown around it’s not hard to understand how these two teams dominate the news and will once again be favored to make it to the post-season.  After all, how many clubs spend $51.5 million just to talk to a free agent?  The Red Sox may have scored a few points among their jealous rivals if  they indeed stared down Scott Boras in the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations and he blinked.   Poor Scott.  If reports are true he “settled” for a $52 million, six-year contract for his 26-year old client.  

Meanwhile, over in the poor old National League, which despite generally being considered the weaker of the two leagues managed to win the World Series last year, the Dodgers have reached deep into their pockets and made a number of acquisitions that will likely make them the favorites in the West.  Not to be outdone, by anyone in either league as it turns out, the Chicago Cubs lavished millions of dollars on several marquee players in an almost desperate attempt to break the endless cycle of futility that hangs over this storied franchise.  Unfortunately, none of the beneficiaries of their munificence can pitch, at least not without breaking down.

What has become evident in baseball among all the major sports is the spiraling out of control of salaries.  Go ahead, name the top salaries paid to NFL superstars like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.  Of course, you haven’t got a clue; but you can name the “posting” fee for Matsuzaka.  Tell me, what are the Penguins paying Sidney Crosby?  A little louder, please.  Meanwhile, over at the NBA, no stranger to ridiculous salaries, the big names there, take your pick, are making how much?

Those who point out that baseball is enjoying record attendance and revenues and can afford these salaries forcibly remind me of the so-called securities experts who during the tech boom of the late ‘90’s and early turn of this century argued that earnings were not the true measure of a company’s worth or prospects.  

We all know how that turned out.

How Not To Sell A Classic

FOR SALE

1996-07 Bentley sedan. Driven hard. Never garaged. Entered in over 100 off-road races; finished in 98. Body compromised in too many places to list here. Involved in three known accidents. Driver-side door does not open. Last known oil change ca. the new millennium. $59,900 or BO. Contact: Billy King, Philadelphia 76ers.

Full Court Treatment

I digress….

The Philadelphia 76ers are in the process of giving Allen Iverson a full-court treatment worthy of the former Soviet Union: to wit, erasing him from the history books and sending him out into the Gulag where he will become a non-person. Of course they cannot really expunge eleven years of hogging the ball just like that so they are doing the next best thing: barring Iverson from the arena (for both games and practice), clearing out his belongings from the locker room, removing his name plate from the stall he used to call home and, get this, re-editing the team video to remove his presence from the highlight reel. Man, that has got to be one short highlight reel now, eh?

The whole sorry affair is really GM Billy King’s fault but as long as Ed Snider owns the 76ers we can expect King to escape the same fate that has befallen his former franchise player. Remember, Snider is slow, painfully slow, to pull the trigger on executives he’s hired no matter how lousy they are at the job. See Bob Clarke for details. In King’s case it can hardly be said he has endeared himself to his boss the way Clarke did.

What Iverson’s imminent departure means is that there is a serious vacuum for future pretenders to the sports medal stand in this town. Indeed, by my reckoning, things stack up like this: Ryan Howard currently wears the gold; Chase Utley the silver; and Brian Dawkins the bronze. No one else is even entered in the race.

And Another Thing....

In this morning’s Daily News Paul Hagen writes:

Some scouts said [Garcia’s] velocity was down dramatically at times last season and that his fastball barely touched 90 even on his good days. Arbuckle disagreed.

"We don't have a lot of concern about that," he said. "His velocity isn't what it used to be when he started out in Seattle. Back then he used to top out at 95. But he's a pitcher now, not a thrower. He's a little different animal."

Garcia is only 31 but all those 200+ innings per season mount up quickly. I still like the deal but I am far from convinced the big right-hander is the savior we’ve all been waiting for. The Phillies’ clearly agree as they continue their quest for bullpen help and another right-handed bat. And well they should.

* * * * * * * *

Barry Bonds has found a job. More to the point, he’s kept his old one. The Giants have re-signed the aging Steroids Man to a one-year $16 million deal. I have to assume his guest appearance at the Winter Meetings moved the Giants off the dime. They must have been worried he'd go somewhere else, break the home run record and then announce he was going into the Hall of Fame wearing, say, a Minnesota Twins cap. The Giants could have saved themselves some money if they’d checked first with Cooperstown. Apparently, they get the last say on whose cap a player wears going into the Hall.

In today’s baseball economy $16 million, even for an aging, bulging superstar must be seen as a bargain. Bonds will put lots of fannies in the seats as he chases Hank Aaron’s record, but if and when he breaks the mark, the drop-off will be precipitous for the Giants, who don’t figure to be contenders in the NL West. Then, they will be left holding the bag with a rapidly fading sour puss making everyone in the clubhouse uncomfortable. That’s the price of “success”.

* * * * * * * *

Speaking of aging though not necessarily fading superstars, what’s with this annual will-he-or-won’t-he bit with Roger Clemens? Now his hedging has infected his protégé, Andy Pettitte, who apparently has unretired before he even retired. Is this such a pitching-starved era that some players are given the first three months of the season off to prepare and then granted special privileges for their few months of active service?

Speaking of “pitching-starved” eras, is ours any more starved than earlier eras or has the nature of pitching if not the overall game changed? Is this also a “hitting-starved” era? I await the reply of some of my sabremetrically-oriented blogging brethren.

Good Beginnings But What About The Ending?

Going into the off-season if you had told me the Phillies would add two starting pitchers I would have been surprised, yet here we are in early December and they have done just that with the free agent signing of Adam Eaton and yesterday’s trade with the White Sox for Freddy Garcia.

The Eaton signing shows up on many observers’ lists as one of the worst deals of the Hot Stove League to date in terms of the dollars spent. The Garcia trade will be viewed by many as one of the best deals. To get the proven right-hander the Phils gave up [on] former first round draft pick Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez, whom they had acquired from the same White Sox.

The surprise here is that the White Sox were willing to gamble that Floyd would eventually fulfill his early promise. The Phils gave him every chance and he muffed the overwhelming majority of them including a stint in the Arizona Fall League that just concluded. His promises will likely remain unfulfilled. Gonzalez is a known commodity to the Sox, who originally developed him and then traded him to the Phils in the Jim Thome deal. Gio was inconsistent at Reading last season but was still considered one of the organization’s top pitching prospects.

Garcia is eligible for free agency at the end of next season and thus may turn out to be a one-year rental, but it is highly unlikely Floyd would have helped at all this coming season or beyond and Gonzalez, like many young pitchers, remains unproven.

The other surprise is that the White Sox did not insist the Phillies include Aaron Rowand in the deal. They have openly regretted trading him in the same Thome deal and have made no bones about wanting to reacquire him. In today’s Inquirer it was suggested they can wait another year when he becomes a free agent.

Commenter extraordinaire George S. wrote a number of us an email this morning suggesting that the improvements in the starting rotation should translate to more innings thrown by that quintet and thus less demands on a clearly depleted bullpen. Theoretically George is correct though Charlie Manuel has shown himself to be one of those managers who turns to his bullpen with Pavlonian consistency after five or six innings no matter what the situation. When he does, he is going to find less proven arms there to call on as things currently stand. Chief among the deficiencies are a proven set-up guy and someone who can take Flash Gordon’s place should the aging right-hander suffer yet another injury. No matter how much they improve at the beginning of the game, the Phils must have someone for the finale if they expect to compete for the NL East title.

Where's Kenny?

There is absolutely no truth to the rumor that Kenny Lofton is aiming to play for all 30 MLB teams before he retires. Sure, Kenny is a free agent and could sign with his twelfth team in fifteen years (including two stints with Cleveland), but at age 39 time is running out.

Meanwhile, every Phillies fan’s favorite outfielder JD Drew has just signed with his fourth club, a mere piker next to Mr. Lofton. Eight years Lofton’s junior, Drew has a lot of catching up to do and it doesn’t appear there will be time given the terms of his deal with Boston. Yesterday Drew signed for five years with the Red Sox, meaning he would be 36 years old before he could move to his fifth club. At last report, Lofton isn’t even looking in his rear view mirror any more but if he were, you can be sure JD’s image wouldn’t even appear.

* * * * * * * *

Pat Gillick’s affinity for players from teams for which he previously worked is getting a little scary. Did Gillick, a Canadian, spend his off-season comparing notes with former Flyers’ GM Bob Clarke, who not only liked to reacquire players he’d previously traded, but had a fatal tendency to trade for players who had great records against his club?

While it would be very nice to have the White Sox’ Freddy Garcia in red pinstripes next season, my enthusiasm would be tempered if he were a one-year rental. Garcia, who played for Gillick in Seattle, can become a free agent at the end of next season. Unless he agrees to an extension before any deal is made, highly unlikely given the kind of numbers being thrown around at less accomplished pitchers this off-season, Garcia might come at too high a price.

Gillick’s penchant for the familiar may only be exceeded by his inexplicable attraction to players with the Texas Rangers on their resumes. We needn’t list all the deals Gillick has previously made with Texas other than to point out that not a single one of the players he received in these transactions is still on the Phils’ 40-man roster. Now, there are rumors he might try and acquire Kevin Mench in a deal with Milwaukee. Anyone want to guess where Mench spent 5.5 of his 6 year career prior to his stint with the Brewers?

Say What?

The calendar pages turn and the seasons roll by. Stadiums are demolished and new ones built. Players and managers come and go. So do broadcasters. But for more than a quarter of a century one constant remains: Dallas Green’s big mouth.

We can all stop worrying about Pat Burrell now that Green is on his case. While most of us mistakenly thought the former phenom’s problems were breaking stuff away and hard stuff inside, Green has put his finger on the real problem: too much fun. That’s right, sports fans, Pat Burrell is just too good looking and too rich for his and the Phillies’ own good. Or as Green so eloquently put it, "It's neat to have money, it's neat to have good looks, and it's neat to have broads all over you.”

Ever on point to say nothing of pc; that's Dallas Green. Now, with that out of the way, we can expect Burrell to respond with Triple Crown numbers to Green’s public calling out. Thanks, Dallas, he needed that!

* * * * * * *

As I’ve been saying for months, Aaron Rowand remains the most likely player to be dealt by the Phils prior to the start of Spring Training. Among his many reported suitors are his former team, the White Sox, and the Texas Rangers. Will someone please tell Pat Gillick there are 28 other major league teams in North America besides the Rangers? What, exactly, is Gillick’s fixation with them? Can he look back over the last year and reasonably say he has done well in his dealings with them? The last time I looked the Phillies no longer had one former Ranger on their 40-man roster.

With the emergence of Shane Victorino last season, the Phils can afford to let Rowand go. Victorino is the superior fielder with a vastly better arm who will hit as least as well as Rowand if not better and generate more excitement on the base paths. He has already shown he can crash into as many walls as Rowand but hopefully with better outcomes.

The White Sox just re-signed Scott Podsednik to a one year deal, but they would love to have Rowand back by most accounts. Sox GM Kenny Williams has pitching to trade, especially starting pitching, which would fit nicely if another rumor, that the Phils are shopping John Lieber, turns out to be true.

* * * * * * * *

Jim Salisbury notes in today's Inquirer that "The Phils plan to interview Jeff Maier for an entry-level scouting or front-office position tomorrow. Maier, 23, became a household name in 1996 when he interfered with a ball at Yankee Stadium, turning a Derek Jeter fly ball into a home run in a playoff game between the Yankees and Orioles. Gillick was the Orioles' GM at the time.

Maier, a North Jersey native, graduated from Wesleyan University in May as the school's all-time hits leader. He had a scouting internship in the Cape Cod League last summer."

Now, as a Wesleyan graduate myself, I am always delighted to see a fellow alum do well in the world. But I am also Baltimore born and bred and was for 35 years a die-hard Orioles fan. So, you can see my loyalties in this matter are conflicted. Let's just leave it at this: I hope Maier is a better judge of talent than he is of fly balls.

On Second Thought....

Albert Pujols wants to apologize to Ryan Howard for his remarks last week about the MVP vote.  That is big of King Albert.  Less big, however, is Pujols’ complaint that his apology is in order because his remarks last week were taken out of context.  He said what he said, consecutive translation notwithstanding.  (The translations, by the way, were fine.)  What Albert miscalculated was that apart from winning on merit, Howard is extremely well liked by everyone including the voters who cast their ballots for the St. Louis first baseman.  When no one rushed to Albert’s defense, he chose option number two:  blame it on the reporters who “misquoted” him.

Next.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Thus far this off-season the Phils haven’t done anything to improve their area of greatest concern, the bullpen.  Nor have them found the big bat to protect Ryan Howard.  As they go into the Winter Meetings, the few remaining free agents available hardly offer much consolation let alone…well…relief.  More and more it appears that any help will have to come via a trade, but it is also generally acknowledged the Phillies have virtually nothing to offer in return except for a few untested pitchers like Gio Gonzalez, whom they are loathe to surrender, and Aaron Rowand, who is still scheduled to be a starter.

Before everyone starts moaning again about the lousy farm system of the Phillies and Ed Wade’s role in its depletion, keep in mind J-Roll, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and Carlos Ruiz are all products of that system.

On the other hand, the problem for the Phils’ farm system today is that as is the case on Wall Street, the markets are only interested in future earnings, not past performance.

It would be encouraging to read a few stories about how much the Phillies are investing in overseas scouts in Latin America and Asia as well as how much they are doing to improve domestic oversight.  In addition, it would be nice to learn the Phillies have finally recognized too many of their prospects move up through the organization without ever learning some of the basics that would include but are not limited to:  learning when to take a pitch or two, moving runners along, hitting behind runners, and bunting.  This includes the Phillies’ pitchers, who are atrocious at all of the above.

There is a lot of competition out there for all athletes let alone baseball players, but every organization should be capable of demanding a certain level of proficiency from the ones they do sign.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Barry Bonds is still without a job and is it any wonder?  No, this isn’t Collusion II on the part of the owners.  Who wants the expense of hiring Bonds for one year at today’s ridiculous prices?  Will he make that money back in additional revenues for his new team?  He’s just as likely to break the mark on the road as at his new home, though you can be sure he will sit out a game or two if the schedule has him returning home as he closes in.  And who among the NL teams wants the liability of watching him limp along in the outfield, unable to perform the most routine plays he used to do so effortlessly?  That prospect makes it more likely he will sign with an AL team and DH.  Finally, who among all MLB teams wants the guaranteed aggravation of the media circus that is sure to ensue as he nears the mark, replete, no doubt, with his inevitable I-am-the-victim-here soliloquies?   One thing seems certain:  while MLB will fete him should he break Henry Aaron’s mark, Hammer’ Hank won’t be among the celebrants.

Looking Ahead?

Help may yet be on the way, but at this stage it is difficult to determine from what quarter.  Until then, I have to conclude  Pat Gillick was telling the truth after all:  he is looking beyond 2007.

For the coming season the Phillies will certainly be competitive in a weak NL East division with the roster they currently have, but holes in the bullpen in particular need to be addressed if they have post-season aspirations.  Failing that, Gillick’s reluctance to overspend this off-season may be putting the Phils in perfect position…for 2008.  By resisting the urge to spend all their new-found cash reserves on free agents Alfonso Soriano, a good player but hardly worth the dollars thrown at him, or Carlos Lee, a middling player who cannot field to save his baseball life, the Phillies should be able to go after some worthy free agents next Fall.  

Meanwhile, any team that trots out  Mssrs. Utley, Howard and Rollins on a daily basis and Hamels and Myers every fifth day should be ready for action if not formidable.  Right now the lineup shapes up like this:

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Helms
Ruiz
Rowand
Pitcher

Helms and Burrell may flip-flop in the five hole.  Howard and Utley may flip-flop in the four hole though I doubt they will.  Ruiz will be spelled occasionally by Coste though Gillick is quoted in today’s Inquirer as saying he is still looking for help at the catcher position.   He was also quoted on Comcast Sportsnet as saying a guy (Burrell) who average between 25 – 30 home runs and 90 rbi’s over the last five years is a difficult commodity to come by.  It’s hard to believe there has been so little interest in Burrell, but his no-trade clause may remain the big stumbling block.  Certainly his salary has to be seen as “in line” with the ridiculous numbers being thrown around these days though his production is hardly as consistent as his GM’s “endorsement” would suggest and his health remains a mystery.  All in all, it appears more likely than ever he will remain with the club.