Monday, October 25, 2004

The Long and Short of It

Thus far this World Series hardly boasts the ingredients of a classic but the Boston faithful aren’t complaining. Their Sox have taken a two games to none lead as the series moves to St. Louis.

Two games may not constitute much of a sample, but they represent nearly 30% of the remainder of the 2004 season. Boston has performed pretty much according to form in them, combining good offense with suspect defense, great starting pitching when Curt Schilling can go, a bullpen by committee and closer Keith Foulke. Moreover, Boston can’t feel too concerned that their game three starter will be Pedro Martinez.

St. Louis, on the other hand, bears only passing resemblance to the juggernaut that won 105 games in the regular season. Their number three, four and five hitters (Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds) are a combined four for twenty-three with one RBI, and Pujols represents 75 percent of those hits.

We needn’t look too far back in time to realize a two game lead doesn’t mean as much as it might have in the past and we will resist any temptation to invoke the more distant history of one of these contestants. Momentum in a seven game series can swing from game to game and if the Cardinals take the opener in St. Louis the complexion of the series will surely change. For their part the Red Sox have to tighten the defense, having made eight errors in the first two games and gotten away with it. No one needs to remind Boston that it can’t continue to give an explosive team like St. Louis extra outs.

The solution for St. Louis is simple. Start hitting like they did during the regular season and everything else will take care of itself. The trick is not to wait too long.

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