Not Ready for Prime Time

The NLCS has turned into an exciting series. Yesterday’s comeback win by Houston was a tense nail-biter that evened the series at two games apiece. Astros starter Roy Oswalt didn’t have his best stuff but he had Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman and Brad Lidge. Still, they had to survive an Albert Pujols drive to the warning track with one on in the ninth to hang on. St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa always wears a worried look, but I couldn’t help noticing in the cutaway shots to him during the game he looked more concerned than usual. St. Louis knows it is in a fight now. Tonight’s winner will go on to take the series.

Speaking of Pujols, other than Barry Bonds, he has become the most feared hitter in baseball. If anyone has discovered a hole in his swing please post it immediately on the web. He swings at virtually everything and hits it hard. Walk him and you still have to face Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and Edgar Renteria in succession.

It is worth digressing from the post-season to look at the Phillies lineup in comparison to the two teams playing for the right to represent the National League in the World Series.

Before Albert Pujols arrives at the plate for the Cards, pitchers must face Tony Womack and Larry Walker. That makes six straight batters with averages above .280, four of whom hit over .300 for the year. Their overall power statistics are second to none in either league. Houston can throw Craig Biggio at you followed after a platoon spot in the order by Carlos Beltran, Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman and Jeff Kent. The Phils, by comparison, counter with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, David Bell, a platoon position in center field, Pat Burrell, and Mike Lieberthal. The top four or five batters in the Phillies lineup match-up fairly well with Houston but fare poorly against the Cardinals’ lineup, a comparison by which every team in baseball would currently suffer. Surprisingly, the most troubling spot in the Phils’ lineup over the second half of 2004 was clean-up, where Jim Thome’s hitting with runners in scoring position was poor throughout the second half of the season and his overall decline in production during the same period was dramatic. (Reports out of the Arizona Fall League suggest the Phillies seem more likely than ever to trade Ryan Howard, a move that will come back to haunt them in a few years.) After Thome’s and Bell’s spots the drop-off is precipitous or, in the case of Pat Burrell, unpredictable.

Turning to pitching the comparisons are even more unfavorable for the Phillies. Houston, of course, has Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt and, when healthy, Andy Pettite. And while no one among St. Louis’ starters is a world-beater, four of the five won fifteen games or more. Eric Milton led the Phillies with fourteen wins; after him the drop-off was, again, precipitous. No one team seems to have a great advantage in the bullpen.

The conclusion is clear: the Phillies are not ready for prime time. They are a decent offensive club that catches the ball well, but they remain at least one or two position players and two starters away from contending for a pennant.